The myth about import substitution
Due to the events in Ukraine the Russian president many reproach with indecision concerning southeast support. However, already that V.V.Putin decided on «the Crimean operation» in a present difficult in-Russian situation, it is possible to put it down to credit and that is why.
The matter is that open support of so-called insurgents is, in fact, retraction of Russia in the full-scale conflict not only in Ukraine, but also in more global opposition. And how it is possible to be involved with present Russian state shots in long opposition?! It is enough to pay attention that only by the decision of the leader of the Kiev junta of Poroshenko on stay of technical cooperation with Russia in the military sphere, our defensive power the crushing blow was struck to one. Probably, expecting it and understanding that for defense industry in the country absolutely incompetent people (Chemezov, Rogozin and Manturov) answer, Putin is compelled to follow a reserved policy concerning support of Russian population in Ukraine.
To tell that the decision on the termination of technological cooperation the extremely unpleasant for military industrial complex of Russia is means, it is simple to tell nothing. Actually, the rupture of technical cooperation with Ukraine unequivocally enters some directions of the Russian military production into a corkscrew. For this reason for the last years, predetermining such development of a situation, it was much told about programs on so-called "import substitution". As the present situation showed, it were only one conversations. Practically anything in this area it was not made. That is a Putin vertical, we will softly tell, overslept a situation both on "vertical", and on "horizontal". Now, when «the thunder burst», it appeared what to "be christened" is already useless…
Conversations concerning import substitution were over the last ten years had, money but as showed the latest events were allocated: all this time to the president simply said lies. Continue to say lies to it and now.
Both Dmitry Rogozin, and Sergey Chemezov, in eager rivalry convince Putin that, in connection with the decision of Ukraine, problems with military production at Russia will not be. It is clear, what not they thought up it. Of it they were convinced by minister-sociologist Manturov who all this time pretended that directs the industry, but actually only invented mechanisms how more to "master" budget money.
Many experts in the field of the defensive industry doubt truthfulness of chemezovsko-rogozinsky estimates. The head of the Center of the analysis of strategy and technologies the known expert in this area Ruslan Pukhov argues that Russia will need not less than 12-13 years to replace the Ukrainian production.
To take at least helicopter engines. It is known that all Russian helicopters of middle class are completed with base TB3-117 engines which are let out serially by the Zaporozhye plant. For all the time of the useless activity on a post of the minister of the industry Denis Manturov, using a sociological principle known only to it, tried to create production of these engines in Russia. At first he simply tried to buy the Ukrainian plant, but real money to pay to his owner Vyacheslav Boguslayev did not want. Manturov wanted to turn the transaction, according to the scheme fulfilled in Russia, that is, to buy an asset cheap on the intermediate company and then to sell it extremely expensively to JSC UIC Oboronprom for money of the Russian budget. But there was an ill luck if in Russia by means of an administrative resource which was provided at that time to it by Sergey Chemezov, it broke owners a method of «the state raiding», this administrative resource did not work at Ukraine. To go on redeeming production at the fair price, Manturov simply could not, proceeding from the sociological mentality.
It was decided to build the plant. But, as, there is in the world still no sociologist who would create a mass production of aviation engines, in Russia this experiment too was not successful. Instead of a mass production of the helicopter engine the usual construction project was realized – the building is constructed, machines are bought… Thus it is necessary to check attentively costs, both of purchase of machines, and of building construction, quite reasonably it is possible to assume that all this process was accompanied by huge kickbacks. Without it manturovsky mechanisms simply do not work. That is, in a basis of «creation of the Russian helicopter engine», the same banal town-planning project as in case of moving for the city (here direct analogy to JSC MVZ im. M.L.Milya) the Klimovsk plant would liberate a number of sound structures in city line of St. Petersburg lay. And it is already clear to Manturova business in the field of real estate.
As a result we have the following: absolute import substitution in creation of helicopter engines is solved only in a question of certification of the Ukrainian products. Practically all the rest is made in Ukraine. The mechanism works approximately so: JSC Klimov buys a complete set from the Zaporozhye plant and carries out otvyortochny assembly of the engine already at itself. After that "drives" it at the stand and writes out the Russian form (the engine passport). All fifty engines on which Chemezov reported on Putin, are assembled on such here to the scheme. Another simply does not exist – that is, the complete set from Ukraine will arrive, there will be "Russian" engines and if will not arrive, and cursors will not be.
Idea of production of the helicopter engine in Russia in general the exotic. Manturovsko-masalovskaya decided to do to ODK engines by an outsourcing method, the former minister Serdyukov liked to use the same method for plundering of the budget of MO Russian Federation. Therefore localization of production of a complete set still is in Russia in embryo. So that «mister соврамши» simply "duped" the old friend. However, to it to it not to get used, all know, how Sergey Chemezov did «the Russian phone». If to consider that Russian in chemezovsky "proryvny" phone, only Russian insertion, with the same success "Russian" it is possible to call any phone let out today.
Though Chemezov has in an asset the shots, capable to create something technical, for example, his wife Ekaterina Ignatov (JSC Kate). After all she managed to create an automatic transmission. Probably, she also should charge creation of the Russian helicopter engine.
As to allegedly Russian VK-2500 engine, Russian it is conditionally. Essentially, it only updating of the TB3-117BM engine, family of the TB3-117 engines, issued in the USSR since 1986 (and its prototype – since 1972), with small completions. The serial dvigatelestroitelny plant JSC Motor Sich, during the existence, let out a large quantity of engines of this type, its technologies are debugged and optimized to a limit, production was created in the conditions of unlimited financing by the Soviet Union, there were no problems with materials and shots. To compete to it it is simply useless. Prime cost of the Ukrainian engines in times will be always lower than the Russian.
After Manturov’s negotiations with Boguslayev, on purchase of the Ukrainian serial plant, were at a deadlock, in 2005 in Russia the decision to start production of this engine on the basis of cooperation of the enterprises of JSC MMP im. V.V.Chernyshova, then still Zavod im. V.Ya.Klimova Federal State Unitary Enterprise, and the St. Petersburg JSC Krasny Oktyabr is made. Further, after creation by manturovsky JSC UIC Oboronprom of impellent collective farm – JSC Objedinyonnaya dvigatelestroitelnaya korporatsiya, JSC MMP im. V.V.Chernysheva plant was decided to destroy, to please to profitable house-building projects which can be realized with success in its huge territory. That is the program appeared completely ruined. In December, 2008 participants of the carried-out scientific and technical council of JSC Vertolyoty Rossii concerning helicopter engine-building noted that in Russia completely there is no full-scale mass production of mid-flight and auxiliary helicopter engines. Further, dvigatelestroitelny swindlers from ODK, instead of creation of a mass production, «sawed the budget» on construction of a new platform of JSC Klimov near St. Petersburg which still stands idle. However, when it is necessary to report to Putin about the "mastered" billions, there make up for beautifully dressed, specially prepared workers, the platform "revives" and this picture twist on all television channels.
As confirmation of long-term idleness of chemezovsky "shots" that just recently – on April 30, 2014, the Moscow plant "Salyut" only started the organization of production of knots of the helicopter VK-2500 engine can serve in this question. It is necessary to understand that in the VK-2500 engine about 2000 details of different degree of complexity. The large serial plant with the big staff of technologists even if will give up all other works can do technical training (technology, equipment, etc.) approximately on 100 details in a month. That is, even to such large enterprise as the Moscow plant "Salyut", with its adjusted work of technological services, is required not less than 2 years, having given up all other works only to prepare papers on production development. How to develop in a short time a mass production of the VK-2500 engine in Russia in the conditions of a total staff deficit, absolutely unclear. Similar statements of the management of Minpromtorga unequivocally speak about scandalous lack of technical knowledge reigning in the ministry.
For reasons of arithmetics clearly that, hardly, made in Russia from the Ukrainian complete set of 50 engines will suffice for production of only 25 helicopters, and it, short of need of replacement of already being motors which have developed the appointed resource in operation. Even if manturovsky ODK by some miracle will reach volumes of release of 300-320 engines as Rogozin speaks, it will allow to make no more than 150-160 helicopters in a year. Besides, it, short of need of planned replacement of the engines which have developed resources on available helicopter park.
JSC Vertolyoty Rossii reported on manufacturing in 2013 of the 303rd helicopters, and Minpromtorg in 2014 planned to let out helicopters not less than in the past, that is more than 300 pieces. Therefore, the need for engines will make, only on the new production, more than 600 engines for 2014, at officially declared possibility of production of 50 pieces. If someone else does not understand is already complete accident! If the Ukrainian junta is consecutive in the decisions, production of helicopters in Russia simply will rise, as as it should be known even to sociologist Manturov, helicopters without engines do not fly.
As to the D-136 engine for Mi-26 helicopters which Putin promised Chinese then even the hint on possibility of production of this engine in Russia is not present and cannot be… So that this "carrot" for Chinese, without the Ukrainian engines, looks deception of "partners" in the state scale. It is remarkable that the USA and the European Union to which emergency Putin "turn" of Russia towards China not so is pleasant, will make everything that Poroshenko’s threat to stop cooperation with Russia in the technical sphere was realized completely. Just it is possible not to doubt it, for employment of the Ukrainian labor class as practice shows, them excites a little.
It is remarkable that the Ukrainian situation unexpectedly illuminated many Russian internal problems which without it were known to only a narrow circle of experts. Now that brothel which is created in the Russian industry, became property of wide circles of the population. If in the 41st for the Soviet industry at Stalin Chemezov, Rogozin and Manturov, the whole world now regularly answered celebrated anniversaries of a victory in that war absolutely other country. Everything says it that ripened long ago the moment when the president of the country needs to make personnel decisions. And if it is and to hesitate further with these questions, the situation will worsen in a geometrical progression as actually disorder in the industry even bigger, than becomes property of publicity.